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Global Base Metals Update: Copper Holds Near $12,700, Nickel Pressured by Surplus, Stainless Steel in Cost-Demand Standoff (April 2026)
Date: April 10, 2026
Global metals markets continue to be shaped by supply-side constraints, geopolitical tensions, and divergent demand signals across sectors.
Copper (Cu) – Copper prices have remained elevated, with LME three-month copper trading around $12,705 per tonne as of April 8, 2026, after a 3.2% surge driven by a temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement that eased market concerns over an economic recession. However, the rally has been capped by LME copper stocks climbing to a eight-year high of 385,275 tonnes — the highest level since March 2018 — while spot copper's discount to three-month futures has widened to $96 per tonne, signaling ample near-term supply. Goldman Sachs has revised down its 2026 base-case copper price target to $12,650 per tonne, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens by mid-April. In a "severe adverse" scenario, the bank sees significant downside risks, noting that current copper prices are not fundamentally supported.
Nickel (Ni) – Nickel prices are trading near $17,200–$17,300 per tonne on the LME, supported by tighter mining quotas in Indonesia (approximately 190–200 million tonnes approved under RKAB) following the country's export tax measures. Analysts suggest that LME nickel could test levels above $18,500 per tonne in the first half of 2026 as the quota cuts take effect. However, the upside remains limited by persistently high global inventories and an anticipated market surplus for 2026, with demand remaining sluggish — stainless steel production is ample while overall manufacturing activity remains weak, and battery sector demand has not yet driven a sharp rise this month.
Stainless Steel – The stainless steel market is currently trapped in a "strong cost support vs. weak demand reality" tug-of-war. On the cost side, Indonesian policy interventions and geopolitical conflicts have kept raw material costs firm — nickel ore prices surged 35–40% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driving 304 cold-rolled stainless steel prices up 1,150 yuan/tonne to 14,000 yuan/tonne. On the demand side, traditional peak-season buying has fallen short of expectations, with downstream buyers exhibiting "fear of high prices" and limited restocking appetite. Social inventory levels remain elevated, and export orders have faced delays due to shipping disruptions and rising freight costs. The overall market is expected to remain in a high-level, range-bound standoff in the near term.
Trade Policy Developments – The United States announced revisions to its Section 232 tariff structure in early April 2026. Fully or predominantly metal-based steel, aluminum, and copper products will continue to face a 50% ad valorem import tariff, while derivatives with metal content above 15% will face a 25% tariff. Certain metal-intensive industrial equipment and grid equipment will benefit from a reduced 15% rate through 2027, and products made entirely with US-sourced metals will face a 10% tariff. Products with less than 15% metal content are exempt. The move aims to close loopholes in the existing tariff system and strengthen US domestic manufacturing capabilities.
Outlook – Looking ahead, copper prices face a dual dynamic: tight concentrate supply and low treatment charges continue to provide a floor, but high LME inventories and macroeconomic uncertainty (including prolonged high interest rates) are capping upside momentum. Nickel's trajectory will be shaped by Indonesia's policy direction and battery sector demand growth, with the market expected to remain in structural surplus. Stainless steel will continue to navigate the delicate balance between elevated production costs and cautious downstream demand.
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